March 2012 Puget Sound Real Estate Activity

Sales Jump More Than 23%, Prices Up Nearly 12%
According to statistics from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service (NWMLS), the number of homes sold in King and Snohomish counties jumped over 23% in March 2012 over the month before, and were up nearly 9% from March of 2011.  Home prices jumped nearly 12% in March over February 2012, and were up almost 5% over the year before. Such a strong showing, coupled with a 22% increase in pending sales, is a predictor that the traditional spring and summer selling season is likely to be very robust in the Seattle area.

Fewer Choices on Market, Bidding Wars
The number of homes for sale (inventory) continues to decline, and there are instances of bidding wars in some neighborhoods. The Seattle market, which had been a buyer’s market for some time, is now turning to favor the seller. Generally, in that type of market, home prices will increase and homes will sell more quickly.

All Residential (Single Family & Condo)
All Residential	March 2012	Change vs. Prior Month	Change vs. Last Year (March 2011)
Available Inventory	9,317	-6.58%	-38.47%
Under Contract	5,543	22.80%	25.07%
Sold	2,910	23.36%	8.99%
Average Sold Price	$342,502	11.86%	4.92%
Avg Days on Market	86	-4.44%	-2.27%

NWMLS Stats 3-12.pdf
Graphs active listings and homes sold for King and Snohomish Counties.

Activity 3-12.pdf (Residential & Condo)
Shows Residential & Condo listing data for King and Snohomish Counties, including Average Sales Price and Average Days on Market.

Activity 3-12 Residential.pdf (Residential only)
Shows Residential listing data for King and Snohomish Counties, including Average Sales Price and Average Days on Market.

Activity 3-12 Condo.pdf (Condo only)
Shows Condo listing data for King and Snohomish Counties, including Average Sales Price and Average Days on Market.

February 2012 Puget Sound Real Estate Activity

Lowest Inventory Level Since 2006
According to statistics from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service (NWMLS), the number of homes for sale in King and Snohomish counties is down 34% in February 2012 over the same month last year. The level of inventory in King & Snohomish counties is at its lowest point since 2006.

Sales Up 30%
Although inventory is low, properly priced properties are selling quickly. Both pending and closed sales are up 30% compared to February 2011.In general the Puget Sound area is showing a shift towards a seller’s market due to lower inventory and increased buyer activity.

While this pattern usually results in increased prices over time, prices slipped again in February. Average sales price of sold listings dipped 14% from last year, and 4% compared to January.

Distressed Properties Account for 42% of Sales
The metro area is still seeing a large number of sales of distressed properties, which, at least for the short term, is driving prices down. Bank owned and short sales made up over 40% of all home sales in King and Snohomish counties.

All Residential (Single Family & Condo)
All Residential	February 2012	Change vs. Prior Month	Change vs. Last Year (February 2011)
Available Inventory	9,973	-5.22%	-34.13%
Under Contract	4,514	26.51%	29.49%
Sold	2,272	12.36%	30.72%
Average Sold Price	$308,835	-4.42%	-14.26%
Avg Days on Market	90	8.43%	4.65%

NWMLS Stats 2-12.pdf
Graphs active listings and homes sold for King and Snohomish Counties.

Activity 2-12.pdf (Residential & Condo)
Shows Residential & Condo listing data for King and Snohomish Counties, including Average Sales Price and Average Days on Market.

Activity 2-12 Residential.pdf (Residential only)
Shows Residential listing data for King and Snohomish Counties, including Average Sales Price and Average Days on Market.

Activity 2-12 Condo.pdf (Condo only)
Shows Condo listing data for King and Snohomish Counties, including Average Sales Price and Average Days on Market.

Average 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage Up From All-Time Record Low

Freddie Mac released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey®(PMMS®), showing fixed mortgage rates moving off their at- or-near record lows for the first time in three weeks amid recent data showing the housing market continues to improve.

• 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.95 percent with an average 0.8 point for the week ending February 23, 2012, up from last week when it also averaged 3.87 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.95 percent.
• 15-year FRM this week averaged 3.19 percent with an average 0.8 point, up from last week when it also averaged 3.16 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.22 percent.
• 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 2.80 percent this week, with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.82 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.80 percent.
• 1-year Treasury-indexed ARM averaged 2.73 percent this week with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.84 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 3.40 percent.

Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac:

“New data releases this week suggest the housing market is continuing to gradually improve. Loans that were seriously delinquent (90 days or more past due plus the foreclosure inventory) fell to 5.3 percent of prime mortgages at the end of 2011, representing the lowest quarterly share since the start of 2009, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. The Census Bureau reported new residential construction starts in January outpaced the market consensus forecast, led by condominiums and apartment buildings, and December’s figures had upward revisions. Finally, existing home sales were at the strongest pace in January since May 2010, according to the National Association of Realtors®”

January 2012 Real Estate Activity

Sales Up, Shift Towards Seller’s Market
According to statistics from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service (NWMLS), the number of homes sold in King and Snohomish counties increased 12% in January 2012 over the same month last year. The number of pending sales was also up substantially, more than 17% over 2011.

Shift Towards Seller’s Market
The number of homes on the market (inventory) continued to shrink, down nearly 30% over 2011. In general the Puget Sound area is showing a shift towards a seller’s market due to lower inventory and increased buyer activity. This pattern usually results in increased prices over time.

Distressed Properties Account for 40% of Sales
The metro area is still seeing a large number of sales of distressed properties, which, at least for the short term, is driving prices down in some neighborhoods. Bank owned and short sales in December made up about 40% of all home sales in King and Snohomish counties.

All Residential (Single Family & Condo)
All Residential	January 2012	Change vs. Prior Month	Change vs. Last Year (January 2011)
Available Inventory	10,522	-1.86%	-29.78%
Under Contract	3,568	16.11%	17.41%
Sold	2,022	-24.97%	12.83%
Average Sold Price	$323,101	-0.91%	-12.03%
Avg Days on Market	83	1.22%	-10.75%

NWMLS Stats 1-12.pdf
Graphs active listings and homes sold for King and Snohomish Counties.

Activity 1-12.pdf (Residential & Condo)
Shows Residential & Condo listing data for King and Snohomish Counties, including Average Sales Price and Average Days on Market.

Activity 1-12 Residential.pdf (Residential only)
Shows Residential listing data for King and Snohomish Counties, including Average Sales Price and Average Days on Market.

Activity 1-12 Condo.pdf (Condo only)
Shows Condo listing data for King and Snohomish Counties, including Average Sales Price and Average Days on Market.

30-year Fixed-rate Mortgage Averages 3.88 Percent

Freddie Mac (OTC: FMCC) released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey®(PMMS®), showing average mortgage rates changing little amid mixed economic data. Regardless, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage edged down slightly to 3.88 percent to a new all-time record low marking the seventh consecutive week below 4.00 percent. (reported 1/19/12)

• 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.88 percent with an average 0.8 point for the week ending January 19, 2012, down from last week when it averaged 3.89 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.74 percent.
• 15-year FRM this week averaged 3.17 percent with an average 0.8 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.16 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.05 percent.
• 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 2.82 percent this week, with an average 0.7 point, matching last week when it averaged 2.82 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.69 percent.
• 1-year Treasury-indexed ARM averaged 2.74 percent this week with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.76 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 3.25 percent.

Attributed to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac:

“Mortgage rates were nearly unchanged this holiday week in lieu of a mixed bag of economic data reports. On the consumer front, retail sales edged up only 0.1 percent in December, but the Reuters/University of Michigan sentiment index continued to climb in January to the highest reading since February 2011. On the business side, industrial production rose 0.4 percent in December, slightly below the market consensus forecast, and the core producer price index rose faster than market expectations. Finally, on the home construction front, builder confidence rose for the fourth consecutive month in January to the highest level since June 2007.”

Mortgage Rates Continue Trend of Record-Breaking Lows

Freddie Mac (OTC: FMCC) released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing mortgage rates easing to new all-time record lows for all products covered in the survey helping to keep homebuyer affordability high. The average for the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has been below 4.00 percent for six consecutive weeks. (reported 1/12/12)

News Facts

• 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.89 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending January 12, 2012, down from last week when it averaged 3.91 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.71 percent.
• 15-year FRM this week averaged 3.16 percent with an average 0.8 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.23 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.08 percent.
• 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 2.82 percent this week, with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.86 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.72 percent.
• 1-year Treasury-indexed ARM averaged 2.76 percent this week with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.80 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 3.23 percent.

Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac:

“Mortgage rates eased slightly this week to all-time record lows following mixed indicators in the labor market. Although the economy added 1.6 million jobs in 2011, which was the most since 2006, the unemployment rate remained historically elevated. The 2009 to 2011 period had the highest three-year average unemployment rate since 1939 to 1941. Moreover, the Federal Reserve indicated in its January 11^th regional economic review that most industries saw limited permanent hiring at the end of last year.”

10 Year Puget Sound Real Estate Trends / 2011

Using NWMLS data we compiled the Median Sales Price, Days on Market, Number of Active Listings, and Number of Sold Listings and Absorption Rate (Months of Inventory) for each month over the last 10 years (Jan 2002 through Dec 2011). Using that data, we created charts showing the trends for each statistic over that timeline.

http://www.northwestrealtors.net/graphs/PDF/10-Year-Real-Estate-Trends.pdf

Some of the points that jump out:

• Sold prices are around 2003 levels.
• Inventory levels drop to lowest point since early 2007.
• Absorption rate at a 4 year low, shows a balanced market (5 month supply).